Wednesday, December 31, 2014

The horse to beat in Thursday's Perth Cup at Ascot Racecourse is the Adam Durrant-trained mare Real Love who secured her spot at the top of the markets with a gun barrier five draw overnight.

2015 Perth Cup top weight Mr Moet

Melbourne Group 1 performer Mr Moet carries the 59kg top weight in Thursday's Perth Cup field at Ascot Racecourse. Photo: Race Horse Photos Australia.

Perth Racing officially released the field and barriers for this summer's $500,000 Group 1 Golden River Developments Perth Cup (2400m) on Monday evening with a full line-up of 16 starters plus two emergency runners accepted for the classic.

Short-priced favourite through Ladbrokes in both the pre and post-field Perth Cup betting markets is Durrant's four-year-old daughter of Desert King Real Love.

She could jump from as close to the inside as barrier four if the two spares fail to gain a run on New Year's Day with the state's number one jockey William Pike retaining his association with the consistent stayer.

Real Love comes off back-to-back wins at Ascot from December with a two and a half-length effort in the Group 3 Queen's Cup (2200m) followed by her narrower victory over Balmont Girl in the Listed W.A. St. Leger (2100m) at the track on the 20th.

In the St. Leger Real Love carried 56kg to victory and she will relish getting down to the 54kg minimum weight for Thursday's rematch with the Paula Wagg-trained W.A. Oaks winner Balmont Girl.

During the autumn Real Love finished second best behind Balmont Girl in the Group 3 Oaks over 2400m and then ran third to the Grant Williams-trained Respondent in the Group 2 W.A.T.C. Derby (2400m).

The Perth Cup favourite then is proven over the mile and a half, and with the light weight and nice draw will be hard to hold off in the January first showdown.

Balmont Girl is the mare most likely to score an upset Perth Cup result then according to bookmakers around the country even after her wide barrier 15 draw.

The four-year-old also goes up to 57kg for the Cup which is the heaviest weight she's ever been asked to carry, jockey Shaun O'Donnell staying on.

O'Donnell has ridden the daughter of Balmont for all but two of her 21 career starts to date including her second behind subsequent Group 2 C.B. Cox Stakes (2100m) winner Elite Belle in the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) earlier this season.

Respondent meanwhile comes off a close third in the St. Leger when beaten just over half a length in one of the traditional Perth Cup lead-ups.

That was an improved run from the Haradasun gelding, winner of the W.A.T.C. Derby back in April after he ran seventh and 13th respectively in the Railway Stakes and Kingston Town Classic.

Along with the favourite Real Love, Durrant has also accepted for the 59kg top weight Mr Moet and Chester Road who carries 58kg from the inside barrier one draw, the duo having dead-heated for fifth in the Cox Stakes last start.

Also launching a triple-pronged attack on the race this year is the Myalup-based Justin Warwick saddling up Tattersall's Cup winner Global Flirt (barrier 16), Verglas mare Lucciola (barrier two) and his best chance of success Son Of Something (barrier 17).

Blackfriars five-year-old Son Of Something may have the wide draw but his lead-up form has been excellent including a Queen's Cup second to Real Love and a fourth last time out over the 2200m again on December 24.

Adding more interest to the Perth Cup field this season is the addition of Neville Parnham's stalwart God Has Spoken who races in the event for the fifth time, his best efforts being second place finishes in both 2012 and 2014.

Drawn in gate 10 the veteran Blackfriars eight-year-old comes off a C.B. Cox Stakes ninth but drops from 59kg under weight-for-age conditions there to 54kg on Thursday with Jarrad Noske to ride.

Parnham's sons Steven, Chris and Brad meanwhile all have Perth Cup rides this week aboard Ihtsahymn (58.5kg), Bass Strait (54kg) and Respondent (54kg) respectively.

Fred Kersley's 2013 Kingston Town Classic winner Ihtsahymn has barrier six for Thursday and comes off a close fourth when under a length off Elite Belle in the Cox Stakes.

His jockey Chris Parnham is the youngest of the three brothers and comes off a short stint in Melbourne where he won the Listed Christmas Stakes on Boxing Day aboard the Leon & Troy Corstens-trained Tried And Tired.

Bass Strait meanwhile also ran well last time out, the Parnham-trained five-year-old finishing a closer third in the Cox Stakes after sixth place finishes in both the Railway and Kingston Town.

The field of guaranteed starters is rounded out by Ask Me Nicely, Classique Ivory, Kirov Boy, Operational and Red Blast.

Starlight Lady and Bedamijo are then the two emergency runners sweating on a scratching drawn in gates nine and three respectively.

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<i>Upper Middle Bogan</i>'s Patrick Brammall and Annie Maynard.

Upper Middle Bogan's Patrick Brammall and Annie Maynard.

Television's best offerings in 2015 are a mixed bag of war stories, Australia's coming of age, reality TV shows that parachute celebrities into the African wilderness and a mix of strange, hilarious and brave imported dramas.

Fairfax Media takes the remote control to channel some of the best shows on offer in 2015, from the critically exalted American drama Transparent to a pair of landmark Gallipoli dramas and a home-grown soap opera about the wealthy House of Hancock.

Glitch (ABC)

The Ex-PM: Shaun Micallef stars in this political sitcom on ABC.

The Ex-PM: Shaun Micallef stars in this political sitcom on ABC. Photo: Simon Schluter

The pitch: Australia does zombies. Sort of.

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Star factor: Patrick Brammall, of Offspring and The Moodys fame and who in acting terms is the man of the moment.

The plot: A small-town cop is called to the local cemetery in the middle of the night to discover that six people have risen from the dead in perfect health.

Dr Chris Brown and Julia Morris are the hosts of Ten's <i>I'm A Celebrity ... Get Me Out Of Here</i>.

Dr Chris Brown and Julia Morris are the hosts of Ten's I'm A Celebrity ... Get Me Out Of Here. Photo: Supplied

The fine print: Great writers, including Louise Fox, Kris Mrksa and Giula Sandler.

Why it will work: The time is right for smart genre stories.

The ex-PM (ABC)

Patrick Brammall stars in <i>Glitch</i>, a series about the Undead.

Patrick Brammall stars in Glitch, a series about the Undead. Photo: Supplied

The pitch: Shaun Micallef does House of Cards. For laughs.

Star factor: The brilliant Micallef.

The plot: Andrew Dugdale is Australia's third-longest-serving prime minister, grappling with the challenge of life after The Lodge.

The fine print: Australia's best comedy producer, Nick Murray.

Why it will work: The brilliant Shaun Micallef.

Gallipoli (Nine)

The pitch: "A landmark television event."

Star factor: Lachy Hulme, Matt Nable, Anthony Hayes, Jeremy Lindsay Taylor, plus Kodi Smit-McPhee.

The plot: A 17-year-old boy lies about his age to follow his brother into the army and into the Great War.

The fine print: Produced by John Edwards and Imogen Banks.

Why it will work: A powerful blend of scale and soul.

Transparent (Stan)

The pitch: A jangled, jagged family drama with a twist.

Star factor: Jeffrey Tambor and Judith Light.

The plot: Retired professor Mort Pfefferman reveals to his family that he is transgender.

The fine print: The show's creator, Jill Soloway, has written a brilliant series.

Why it will work: It's breathtakingly original. And superbly bold.

Australia: The Story of Us (Seven)

The pitch: "More than 40,000 years in the making ... Australia's history, from the beginning to the present day."

Star factor: CGI sequences that offer a never-seen-before window into early Australia.

The plot: "Stories of the nation's origins and fresh insights into how Australians came to create the homeland they inhabit today."

The fine print: It's a very ABC-seeming program, on a commercial network. That's risky.

Why it will work: Because 40,000 years is a long time to wait for a definitive history of our nation.

Deadline Gallipoli (Foxtel)

The pitch: The Gallipoli story, from the perspective of Australia's war correspondents.

Star factor: Sam Worthington, plus Hugh Dancy, Ewen Leslie and Charles Dance.

The plot: Charles Bean, Ellis Ashmead-Bartlett, Phillip Schuler and Keith Murdoch bear witness to the events of 1915.

The fine print: Bryan Browne as General Bridges and John Bell as Lord Kitchener.

Why it will work: An iconic moment in history told from a new perspective.

Grace and Frankie (Netflix)

The pitch: Rivals become friends when their husbands run off together.

Star factor: Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin.

The plot: Long-time rivals Grace and Frankie are brought together when their husbands (Martin Sheen, Sam Waterston) announce they are in love.

The fine print: Created by the woman behind Friends, Marta Kauffman.

Why it will work: It's two-thirds of the iconic comedy 9 to 5. Can a Dolly Parton guestie be far off? 

House of Hancock (Nine)

The pitch: Dynasty, Australian-style.

Star factor: Mandy McElhinney as Gina, Peta Sergeant as Rose and Sam Neill as Lang.

The plot: The true story of the Hancock mining dynasty, and the clash between daughter Gina and her father's housekeeper-turned-wife Rose.

The fine print: Produced by Michael Cordell, Claudia Karvan and Paul Bennett.

Why it will work: Pure soap, but ripped straight from the headlines.

Gogglebox (Ten)

The pitch: Watching people watching TV.

Star factor: The format, which is tricky to get your head around, but brilliant when you do.

The plot: Cameras capture ordinary Australians as they watch TV and interact with each other.

The fine print: It's a hit format elsewhere in the world, and its success depends heavily on smart casting.

Why it will work: It's brilliant. Difficult to explain clearly. But brilliant.

The Great Australian Race Riot (SBS)

The pitch: Australia's hidden history of mob rules.

Star factor: Best-selling author and columnist Peter FitzSimons.

The plot: A three-part documentary series that charts Australia's 170-year history of violent mobs and race riots.

The fine print: It will turn everything you think you know upside down.

Why it will work: A punchy approach that illuminates a provocative topic.

I'm A Celebrity ... Get Me Out Of Here (Ten)

The pitch: Celebrities parachuted into the wilderness and left to fend for themselves.

Star factor: Hosts Julia Morris and Dr Chris Brown.

The plot: Reality series based on a hit format, usually produced in Australia for other countries. This one is filmed in Africa.

The fine print: In this genre, casting is everything, so it needs the right mix of B- and C-listers.

Why it will work: It smells new, and the Australian market, presently, smells a little stale.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Just a few years ago, underemployed TV writers were complaining that reality programming was taking over their industry.

Now the scribes are having their revenge: Unscripted programming is mired in an unexpected slump.

Onetime smashes such as "Survivor" and "Dancing With the Stars" are drooping with age. Coca-Cola recently wrapped up its 13-year sponsorship of "American Idol" after Fox's singing hit plummeted in the ratings last season. NBC's own singing show, "The Voice," saw its season finale drop nearly 10% this month.

And what's worse, no new hits are taking their place.

Fox bet the farm early this season on "Utopia," a voyeuristic series in which a group of isolated "pioneers" was observed trying to create a new society. Viewers yawned, and the network eventually canceled the program, for a loss that insiders pegged at more than $50 million. ABC drew disappointing results this summ er with its gimmicky singing show "Rising Star."

"Reality TV was supposed to be a long-term fix to the problems of television, but that optimism was misguided," said Jeffrey McCall, a media studies professor at DePauw University in Greencastle, Ind. "Program executives overestimated the true value of the commodity and drove the genre into the ground."

Even cable networks, a longtime proving ground for the genre, are seeing diminishing returns.

A&E's "Duck Dynasty" ratings have plunged, even though they are still high by cable standards. TLC this fall quickly shelved its hit "Here Comes Honey Boo Boo" after matriarch Mama June was accused of dating a sex offender, but viewership had already declined sharply. And this fall, AMC largely abandoned a three-year foray into unscripted programming, deciding to return its primary focus to its signature scripted series such as "Mad Men" and "The Walking Dead."

What's the problem? Industry observers pin the blame on various factors. Too many copycat shows. Too many airings of the few hit shows out there ("Idol," which once aired as many as three times a week, will get cut to one night per week for this winter's Season 14). Too few truly original concepts.

Of course, there are still plenty of reality series to go around. In fact, some TV executives point out that the broadcasters probably wouldn't be able to stay in business without unscripted series. That's because, as overall network viewership has declined in the face of competition from cable and the Internet, ad income has stagnated.

Reality shows are usually relatively inexpensive to produce — "Utopia" was an exception because of a rich deal struck with the producers — and can be scheduled for many more hours than comedies or dramas. Thus, reality is a cheap way to fill prime time.

Take "The Voice." Despite its ratings fall-off, the singing contest remains one of the top shows on TV. This month's season finale delive red 12.7 million total viewers, according to Nielsen. That was off 8% compared with the December 2013 finale, but those kinds of numbers still easily vault "The Voice" into the top 10. Then there's the No. 2 reality series, "Survivor," which has proved an enduring hit for CBS; next year, it heads into its 30th edition.

"These are enormous franchises that, frankly, don't come along that often. Every six or seven years, a mega-format comes along," said Paul Telegdy, who oversees "The Voice" as NBC Entertainment's president of alternative and late-night programming. "I don't think there's anything wrong with the reality business."

That may be true in the long run. But there's no question that the genre has stumbled lately. And there are few signs of the gold-rush mentality that surrounded reality TV a decade or so ago.

Broadcasters are scheduling fewer unscripted series. This fall, a total of 13 hours per week were devoted to reality shows collectively on ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC. That's a steep drop from 20 hours as recently as 2011.

Moreover, many of the top executives who helped drive the prime-time reality craze have moved on.

Andrea Wong, who brought "The Bachelor" and "Dancing With the Stars" to ABC, now helps run the international division of Sony Pictures.

Mike Darnell, the reality guru at Fox, left for a job running Warner Bros.' sprawling syndicated TV operations.

Ben Silverman, the former talent agent who helped usher in the prime-time reality trend when he brokered a deal to bring the British game show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" to the U.S., finished a turbulent tenure as a top programmer at NBC in 2009 and has gone back to producing programs.

Now corner offices are occupied by people whose main backgrounds are in scripted entertainment, not reality. ABC's Paul Lee used to run ABC Family. NBC's Bob Greenblatt is a former producer who oversaw programming for Showtime. The new top prog rammers for Fox are Gary Newman and Dana Walden, the duo who has for years been supervising the studio side, home of scripted hits such as ABC's "Modern Family" and Fox's "The Simpsons."

"The networks don't have the executives in them anymore who really love reality TV," said Tom Nunan, a producer and former president at the network UPN (now the CW) who teaches at UCLA.

Nunan and other experts believe the networks have depended for too long on supposedly "proven" reality shows lifted from other countries — such as "Rising Star," which ABC adapted from an Israeli hit and sent into an overcrowded U.S. singing show market — and are missing out on opportunities to expand the genre with new concepts of their own.

"Competition, endurance, social experiments — there's still a lot of room to play within those areas," Nunan said. He pointed out that "The Apprentice," "The Amazing Race" and "The Biggest Loser" were all created in the U.S. and went on to become worldwid e hits.

What's more, a reality smash can help promote scripted shows. Fox used "Idol" to market series such as "24."

"Imagine Bob Greenblatt did not have 'The Voice' these past couple of years," Nunan said. "How would he have even promoted 'The Blacklist'?" NBC's crime thriller starring James Spader has turned into a hit partly thanks to its scheduling right after the singing show.

Without a strong reality lineup, the already-sobering prospect for broadcasters can look downright perilous. And that's something that could get the attention even of TV writers who still blame "American Idol" and "Survivor" for their woes.

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